3 picks for Tuesday night, headlined by Damian Lillard (November 9)

Monday’s 8-game slate did not disappoint. Steph Curry went nuclear with a masterpiece of 50 points and 10 assists against the Hawks. Melo turned the clock back to knock down seven threes in an OT win over the Hornets and the Nuggets wanted all the smoke against the Heat. NBA Twitter is eagerly awaiting the next phase of the Jokic brothers vs. the Morris twins saga, so be sure to catch the rematch on November 29, because that’s going to be must-watch TV.

The NBA is pretty light on Tuesday, with just three games on the roll. Philly plays at home on the backend of a back-to-back set against the Bucks. And in the last two games, the Hawks (also back-to-back) are traveling to Utah, along with Blazers going up against the Clippers for the nightcap.

Let’s dive into today’s props!

We use the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted in various sportsbooks. Each bet is then rated on a scale of 1-10, with 10 being the best possible number.

Below I’ve laid out three prop bets I play, the case study for each bet, and the best books for finding odds on those player props.

Props and Picks for NBA Players

Bobby Portis over 7.5 rebounds (-134)

Bucks vs Sixers Sixes + 6.5
Time | TV 19:00 ET
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The Bucks will take on a shorthanded Sixers team that will have to do without Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris. Portis has seen a gradual increase in minutes over the past four games, seeing his minutes grow from 19 to 31 in Sunday’s loss to the Wizards. Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton are out so he is slated to start over at PF, boosting his chances on Tuesday night.

Portis is one beast per minute, so when he’s on the floor he produces. FantasyLabs expects Portis to get 31 minutes, and when he gets 30-39 minutes, his career averages 9.7 rebounds per game. He comes into Tuesday’s game with more than 7.5 rebounds in three straight games and 60% of the games played this year.

Bobby P is second to the Bucks in rebound odds per game with 13.6 and averaged 7.4 rebounds per game over five games. Sixers’ frontcourt is extremely thin, so Portis should clean the glass with relative ease with Philly playing back to back.

Our action projection tool has Portis taking down 10.2 rebounds, and with a bet quality rating of 10 out of 10, this is my best bet for the over.

Rudy Gobert over 26.5 points + rebounds (-105)

hawks vs. Jazz Jazz-8
Time | TV 21:00 ET
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The Jazz face an Atlanta Hawks team that lost 14 points last night thanks to Steph Curry going nuts. It doesn’t get any easier for the Hawks, as they have lost five of their last six games against Utah. Rudy Gobert also owns Clint Capela. And 26.5 points + rebounds feels too low for the Frenchman.

In their last four matchups, Gobert averaged 30.75 points + rebounds against Capela. Gobert has gone over 26.5 P+R in 8-of-10 games this season and one of those was a 13 point and 15 rebound performance against the Hawks last week.

He is in the midst of a career year with averages of 15.2 points and 16.1 rebounds per game. There may be some risk as the Jazz are 8 point favorites, but he can reach this line in under 33 minutes (FantasyLabs projects him 32.27 min).

He scored between 10-19 points in 60% of his games, and grabbed 15-20+ rebounds in 70% of his games. Gobert has a ridiculous 24.9 rebound chances up to 10 games per game. Start the big man to do it again as our action projection tool has Gobert total of 30 points + rebounds.

Taking over.

Damian Lillard among 8.5 assists (-145)

Blazers vs Clippers Clippers +2.5
Time | TV 10pm ET
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Lillard has yet to find his groove this season. After 10 games, he averages a career low of 18.5 points per game. However, he provides 8.5 assists per game, which would be a career highlight. We know his feud with the Clippers runs deep, and his heroic performance in the Playoffs, I can’t stand getting that many assists on the road against a formidable opponent.

The last time Lillard recorded more than 8.5 assists against the Clippers was March 12, 2019. Since then, he has faced the Clippers seven times and has not yet sniffed 8.5 assists in any of those games. In that seven-game span against the Clippers, he has provided an average of 5.3 assists. Now Dame has provided 8.5 assists in 5-of-10 games this year. There’s a way for Dame to go to nine dimes as his potential assists are 14.9 per game, but Portland will need his score – just like in the previous game where he lost 25 points with six assists in a win of 19 points on October 29.

Our action projection tool has Lillard dishing out 7.8 assists, so I’ll take the under on his assist prop, but hope he drops a lot of buckets.

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