AFC Playoff Picture: Bills Rooting Interests For Week 14

The Buffalo Bills are having a bit of trouble in the AFC Playoff standings after their most recent loss to the New England Patriots on Monday night football. With a mediocre record in conference games, they may need to win four of their last five games to make it into the postseason.

Of course, they can also get some help from the whole league and that’s why we’re here today. Starting on Thursday night and continuing through Sunday afternoon, there are many games that could affect Bills’ playoff run. And that’s a shift for us. We are now only going to focus on Buffalo making it to the play-offs, and not on placing the roster. So if we choose the Chiefs over the Raiders, it’s just because of the Wild Card race.

Sure, the Bills can still win the division, but they would probably have to bring the table to 12-5 for that to happen. At the very least, they should be 11-6, including a win over the Patriots. Then New England would have to lose another game to the Colts, Jaguars or Dolphins.

To give you an idea of ​​what people think is going to happen, we’ve included DraftKings SportsBook’s betting rules. Chances/lines subject to change. General terms and conditions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.

Before we get to the root stakes, here’s the current stand. Division leaders are listed in the 1-4 slots.

AFC Modes

  1. New England Patriots (9-4)
  2. Tennessee Titans (8-4, 5-3 AFC)
  3. Baltimore Ravens (8-4, 5-4 AFC, win over KC)

  4. Kansas City Chiefs (8-4, lose to TEN & BAL)

  5. Los Angeles Chargers (7-5, 5-3 AFC, win over CIN)

  6. Cincinnati Bengals (7-5, 5-3 AFC, loss to LAC)

  7. Buffalo Bills (7-5, 5-5 AFC)
  8. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5-1)
  9. Indianapolis foals (7-6)
  10. Las Vegas Raiders (6-6, 4-3 AFC, victory over DEN)

  11. Cleveland Browns (6-6, 3-5 AFC, win over DEN)

  12. Denver Broncos (6-6, loss to CLE & LVR)

  13. Miami Dolphins (6-7)

  14. New York Jets (3-9)++

  15. Houston Texans (2-10, 2-7)++

  16. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)++

++ Eliminated in the post season


Games are listed in order of importance to Buffalo.

Buffalo Bills (7-5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday 12 December, 4.25 pm Easter
Line: Bucs with 3.5

The Bills must win four of their last five games to earn a spot in the playoffs due to divisional matches between other Wild Card candidates. Right now, Buffalo has about a 78% chance of making it to the playoffs, but a win over the Bucs takes them all the way to 91%, according to the New York Times. The Bills have been alternating wins and losses for a while, so it’s the week they should be winning. A loss this week and Buffalo should essentially run the table to peep in or get big help from the entire conference.

Minnesota Vikings over Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5-1)
Thursday night football
Line: Minnesota with 3.5

A win tonight and the Steelers pass the bills to the last Wild Card spot, at least for now. The Vikings have been incredibly hit or miss this year and hopefully they will have a chip on their shoulder after letting the Lions take their first win in a calendar year.

New York Giants over Los Angeles Chargers (7-5)
Sunday 12 December 16:05 Easter
Line: 10″ chargers

The Chargers have been up and down almost as much as the Bills this year. They have the Chiefs, Broncos, and Raiders on their remaining schedule, which will help the Bills one way or another. A loss to an NFC team (perhaps even controlled by Jake Fromm?) would be beneficial for the rest of the teams in the AFC.

San Francisco 49ers over Cincinnati Bengals (7-5)
Sunday, December 12, 4:25 PM Easter
Line: 49ers through 2

Another interconference game that could have a big impact on Buffalo, the 49ers going to Ohio and defeating the Bengals would be a big help to the rest of the AFC. Cincinnati is an annoying Wild Card team with a phenomenal Conference record, but later in the AFC Playoff Race it will be played against four teams. After this they have to get through the Broncos, Ravens, Chiefs and Browns. (Bonus: The first round of San Francisco goes to the Dolphins and this would lower it.)

Kansas City Chiefs (8-4) over Las Vegas Raiders (6-6)
Sunday 12 December, 1:00 PM Easter
Line: Chiefs with 9.5

It’s pretty simple, actually. The Raiders are one game behind the Bills, so if they win against the Chiefs and Buffalo loses to the Bucs, they pass the Bills based on the Conference record. Not a position we want next Monday.

Baltimore Ravens (8-4) over Cleveland Browns (6-6)
Sunday 12 December, 1:00 PM Easter
Line: brown with 3

Same deal as Chiefs/Raiders. This one isn’t as important as Cleveland’s AFC record is worse than Buffalo’s, so the Bills would win the tiebreak and still be ahead of Cleveland.

Detroit Lions over Denver Broncos (6-6)
Sunday 12 December 16:05 Easter
Line: Broncos through 10

The Broncos, like the Raiders, are a gameback to the Bills. A win in Denver and a loss to Buffalo would put them in the standings, but the Bills’ have a better AFC record than the Broncos.

Jacksonville Jaguars over Tennessee Titans (8-4)
Sunday 12 December, 1:00 PM Easter
Line: Titans with 8.5

The Titans still have the potential to fall apart through injury. A Titans loss and a Bills win put the two teams together in the race for a Wild Card (although Tennessee would still control AFC South). They have games against the Steelers, Dolphins and 49ers, in addition to a game against the Texans.

New York Jets over New Orleans Saints
Sunday 12 December, 1:00 PM Easter
Line: Saints with 5.5

Wow. go jet. get that worse design pick and boost Bills’ Strength of Victory. JETS!

Seattle Seahawks over Houston Texans
Sunday 12 December, 1:00 PM Easter
Line: 8.5 . Seahawks

The Seahawks’ first round goes to the Jets, so this will lower that pick. Buffalo would have one win in their Strength of Victory, but that tiebreaker probably won’t matter at this point.

Washington Football Team about Dallas Cowboys
Sunday 12 December, 1:00 PM Easter
Line: Cowboys by 4.5

Buffalo’s Strength of Victory is all that plays in this game.

Carolina Panthers over Atlanta Falcons
Sunday 12 December, 1:00 PM Easter
Line: 2.5 . Panthers

This game is just neutral for Buffalo in the playoff race, but Carolina’s second round goes to the Jets.

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears
Football on Sunday evening
Line: packers with 12.5″
Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals
Monday night football
Line: Cardinals with 2

Buffalo didn’t have any of these teams on their schedule this year, and they won’t affect the 2022 NFL Draft for Buffalo or any of their divisional opponents. It’s not worth looking at other AFC teams’ Strength of Victory at this point as Bills’ are so low, so support whoever you want in these games.

Day: New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles


If all goes well with Buffalo, they could rise to first place in the Wild Card race and get some breathing room for the teams not playing in the playoffs. The sheer number of AFC/NFC games this week means we could see a massive shift in the playoff picture.

Projected AFC Mode

  1. New England Patriots (9-4, 7-1 AFC)
  2. Baltimore Ravens (9-4, 6-4 AFC, win over KC)

  3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-4, 4-4 AFC, loss to BAL)

  4. Tennessee Titans (8-5, 5-4 AFC)
  5. Buffalo Bills (8-5)
  6. Indianapolis Foals (7-6, 6-3 AFC)
  7. Los Angeles Chargers (7-6, 5-3 AFC, win over CIN)

  8. Cincinnati Bengals (7-6, 5-3 AFC, loss to LAC)

  9. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6-1)
  10. Las Vegas Raiders (6-7, win over DEN, 4-4 AFC)

  11. Miami Dolphins (6-7, 4-5 AFC)

  12. Cleveland Browns (6-7, 3-6 AFC, win over DEN)

  13. Denver Broncos (6-7, 3-6 AFC, loss to CLE & LVR)

  14. New York Jets (4-9)++

  15. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-10)++

  16. Houston Texans (2-11)++

++ Eliminated in the post season

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