Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots AFC Wild Card Bets, Lines, Trends

In the Wild Card round of this season’s AFC playoffs, the Buffalo Bills are the favorites, but by less than a touchdown (-4) over the New England Patriots. Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York will host the game on January 15, 2022, starting at 8:15 PM ET. An over/under of 44 points has been established for the match.

Opportunities for Bills vs Patriots

Favorite Scatter top bottom
bills -4 44

Accounts Bet Stats

If the home team

  • Buffalo is 6-3 in home games and has covered the spread at home four times.
  • This season, the Bills have a 4-2-2 record ATS in home games when they play as 4-point favorites or more.
  • Buffalo’s home games have reached the set point total three times this year.
  • The Bills and their opponents have averaged 45.6 points per home game this season, 1.6 points more than the game’s expected total.

Last three games

  • Buffalo covered the spread twice in the past three games, setting a 3-0 record in those games.
  • Once in those three games, the final combined score went over the set total.
  • The past three Bills games averaged 44.0 points, equal to the over/under of this matchup.

General betting stats

  • Buffalo has a record of 9-6-2 against the spread this season.
  • The Bills have a 6-4-2 record against the spread in games they favored by 4 points or more this season.
  • Eight of Buffalo’s 17 games with a set total have made the over (47.1%).
  • Buffalo and his opponent have broken the 44-point mark nine times this season.
  • Bills games averaged 47.4 points per game this season, 3.4 more than the over/under for this matchup.

Patriots Betting Stats

If the away team

  • New England has covered the spread five times on the road, standing 6-2 in road races.
  • This year, the Patriots are 2-2 ATS in road races as 4-point underdogs or more.
  • New England has exceeded a set point total three times this year in a road race.
  • The Patriots and their opponents have averaged 43.4 points per road race this year, 0.6 points less than this game’s total.

Last three games

  • New England capped the spread once in its last three matchups, while setting a 1-2 record in those games.
  • The Patriots and their opponents have crossed the overs in all three of those games.
  • The last three Patriots games averaged 42.0 points in total, 2.0 points less than the over/under points from this matchup.

General betting stats

  • New England has gone 10-7-0 ATS this season.
  • When they’ve played at least 4-point underdogs this season, the Patriots are 1-0 against the spread.
  • Of New England’s 17 games with a set total, nine are left (52.9%).
  • New England’s games have jumped more than 44 points ten times this season.
  • This season, Patriots games have resulted in an average score total of 44.1, which is 0.1 point higher than the over/under for this matchup.

Over/under trends

Point scored (PG) Points Allowed (PG) Average above/below Games above current O/U
bills 28.4 17.0 47.4 9
patriots 27.2 17.8 44.1 10

Bills Player Props

  • Josh Allen passed for 4,407 yards (409-for-646), with 36 touchdowns and 15 interceptions (259.2 yards per game). He has also carried the ball 122 times for a team-high 763 yards and six scores, averaging 44.9 yards per game.
  • Devin Singletary has scored a team-high 870 rushing yards (51.2 per game) and seven scores.
  • Stefon Diggs has 103 catches (on 164 goals) and leads the team with 1,225 receiving yards (72.1 per game) while scoring 10 touchdowns.
  • Cole Beasley also added 82 receptions (on 112 goals) for 693 yards, scoring one touchdown.
Name Pass Yds Rush Yds Rec Yds
Josh Allen 239.5 (-115)
Cole Beasley 33.5 (-115)
Stefan Diggs 64.5 (-115)
Dawson Knox 27.5 (-110)
Devin Singletary 59.5 (-114)

Patriots Player Props

  • Mac Jones has thrown 3,801 yards while completing 67.6% of his passes, with 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions (223.6 yards per game).
  • Damien Harris has taken 202 carries for a team-leading 929 rushing yards (54.6 per game) while scoring 15 touchdowns.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has 606 yards on 133 carries (35.6 yards per game), with five hasty touchdowns.
  • Jakobi Meyers has been targeted 126 times and made 83 catches, leading his team with 866 yards (50.9 per game) while racking up two touchdowns.
  • Kendrick Bourne has chipped with 55 receptions (on 70 goals) for 800 yards and five touchdowns.
Name Pass Yds Rush Yds Rec Yds
Nelson Agholor 27.5 (-114)
Kendrick Bourne 34.5 (-115)
Hunter Henry 32.5 (-114)
Jakobi Meyers 45.5 (-114)
Damien Harris 57.5 (-114)
Mac Jones 201.5 (-105) 7.5 (-124)


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