NBA DFS Breakdown (Monday, January 10): Hold On To Sabonis

Monday is a seven-game slate starting at 7pm ET.

Let’s dive into some of the best plays using the FantasyLabs tools and stats.

Also don’t forget that for large field tournaments you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you want to build your lineups by hand.

Note: Projections and leverage Scores/ratings may change during the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape is changing rapidly. Please refer to the player models directly for any updates as we get closer to the slot.

Point guard

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James Harden has fallen back to Earth after its eruption from Christmas to New Years, including three triple-doubles in a week and four consecutive games of at least 30 points.

Still, Harden has one of the highest ceilings on any slate available, and he can easily overshadow 60 fantasy points on both sites. Harden’s recent cooldown may be causing DFS players to shy away from lineups so we can differentiate ourselves in large field tournaments by playing against him.

Where the

Kevin Porter Jr. ($6,200 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) has seen his price drop over the past few weeks, but he’s now priced so low that we need to take that into consideration and give him a shot in tournament lineups.

He can score quickly when he gets hot, and KPJ can assist elite and steal numbers when he’s playing. Tonight’s matchup with Philly has an over/under 227.0, and it should be the perfect matchup for Porter Jr. to bounce back and provide some DFS value.

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Darius Garland went 3-of-12 on Sunday for just nine points and ended up with a rotten 9/4/2/1 line that should have DFS players underestimating him tonight with an $8,900 price tag on DraftKings. We can take advantage and turn to him in a very favorable match-up with a Kings squad based on fast play and low defense. Garland is only $7,700 on FanDuel, where he’ll probably be more chalky, but that’s a savings you can’t ignore.

Shooting Guard

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Donovan Mitchell is fresh off an effort of 36 points and nine assists, and he gets a great matchup tonight with Detroit as Monday’s featured stud. Over his last five games, Spida has averaged 28.2 points, 6.2 assists, 3.8 rebounds, 1.6 steals and 4.0 triples.

The Pistons are 22nd in defensive rating and 10th in pace, giving Mitchell a positive boost in opponent plus/minus and tempo difference. He has a ceiling projection of over 62 points in our NBA models, given his elite play this season.

Where the

Lonnie Walker ($4,200 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) went for 25 points, four assists, three rebounds, one block and a steal on the San Antonio grid on Sunday.

With all Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson and Derrick White (Protocols) out, we can go back to Walker as a quality salary-saving option on a studded slate.

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Jaylen Brown ($9,200 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel) still flies under the radar in DFS competitions for more enticing plays like Jayson Tatum or Robert Williams. We can take advantage of that. In his last four games, Brown has a 50-point game, a 30-point game and a triple-double to his name. Tonight’s matchup with the short-handed Pacers is nothing to worry about, and Brown could be a sneaky, low-owned player tonight.

Little Forward

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Kevin Durant has scored at least 50 fantasy points in four straight games, and he gets another juicy match-up against the Blazers tonight in a game totaling 228.0.

Durant has shown no signs of slowing this season as he averaged 30.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 2.5 stocks over his last six games. This is a tempo-down spot for Brooklyn, but a great opponent plus/minus to attack.

Where the

Keita Bates-Diop is priced at just $3,800 on DraftKings and $3,900 on FanDuel. That’s a pretty cheap price tag for a guy who would have to be back in the basic setup and projected for 32 minutes.

KBD has a ceiling of almost 40 fantasy points, and we saw him hit that ceiling just three weeks ago when he scored a career-high 30 points against the Lakers.

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Lance Stephenson’s price has risen dramatically on FanDuel to $6,600, but it’s still just $5,500 on DraftKings after two monster performances in a row. Over his last two, Stephenson has a game of 30 points, five assists and a play of 16 points, 14 assists and four steals to his credit. It’s worth checking out on both sites, but it’s especially attractive on DraftKings.

Power forward

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i will talk about Giannis Antetokounmpo in the Fast Break section below, but for our featured stud we go to Domantas Sabonis, which recently caught fire and is getting an exploitable matchup with Boston.

He went 42 points against the Jazz on Saturday for a career high and has scored at will and broken the box score with his all-around efforts. Over his last four, he has averaged 30.3 points, 9.8 boards and 6.0 dimes, while racking up 1.8 triples per game. Sabonis accounted for two double-doubles, one triple-double and scored at least 30 runs three times in that period.

It’s $10,300 on both sites, and its recent five-figure price hike may make it a less popular option than Giannis, Durant, Joel Embiid or Tatum. We’ll stay with him on the slate tonight like a man with a monster ceiling.

Where the

After a fantastic start to the season, Harrison Barnes has cooled down considerably. He’s averaged 14.1 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.4 triples and 2.3 assists in his last 14 games, but he still logs more than 30 minutes a night.

Our models give him a maximum of 40 points on both sites, and his price tag has now reached the point where we should take a shot at him. With just $5,400 on DraftKings and $5,000 on FanDuel, he could return significant value in a matchup with Cleveland that should provide a friendly gaming environment.

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Antetokounmpo gets another blast at Charlotte tonight after losing to the Hornets on Saturday night. However, the Bucks did not lose it due to a lack of effort from the Greek Freak.

Antetokounmpo took off for 43/12/3 with two blocks and a bargain Saturday, and he will certainly be motivated to perform in this rematch. Unsurprisingly, the Hornets/Bucks match up has the highest over/under on the slate with a massive 236.5. There should be enough points to go around.

Centre

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Embiid gets an incredible friendly tonight in Houston where he is once again the featured stud. Embiid has scored at least 30 points in six consecutive games and averaged 33.2 points, 10.5 boards, 4.5 dimes, 2.3 stocks and 1.3 triples in that period.

When he played against the Rockets last week, he exploded for a 31/15/10 triple-double. The match-up with Houston gives him a significant pace-up spot and an excellent opponent Plus/Minus.

Where the

Bobby Portis comes in at $6,800 on DraftKings and $6,000 on FanDuel, and our model gives him one of the highest overall ratings of any player on the slate.

Crazy Eyes posted a 19/13 double-double against the Hornets in Saturday’s game, and he now has a double-double in two straights. During that period, he averaged 22 points, 12.5 boards and 1.5 shares. He has some of the strongest opponents plus/minus and tempo differences of any center.

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Alex Len has averaged 17 points, 10 rebounds and a steal over his last two games and numbers to see a lot of points tonight with Richaun Holmes and Damian Jones both in protocols.

Jakob Putl is a reasonably priced pivot of any of the above options, and is a constant contributor throughout the season. Over his last seven, he has averaged 13.6 points, 10.9 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 2.0 stocks and has a below average defense in the New York frontcourt against opposing centers.

Photo Credit: Mike Stobe/Getty Images. Pictured: Domantas Sabonis

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