Everyone loves fantasy football, but DFS can be challenging. Gambling in particular has become particularly tough. You can try your luck in 50 / 50s or double-ups, but these competitions are full of some of the best DFS players in the world. You can try head-to-heads, but there is no guarantee that you will not be torn by a shark.
Fortunately, StatHero gives DFS players a new opportunity to gamble. Instead of playing against an unknown opponent, you can play against a lineup of your choice. This means that you know in advance exactly who you are facing and that you can build your lineups to target them. You can fade a specific player, fade a specific lineup construction, or you can even fade Michael Rapaport. I do not know about you, but I certainly like my chances against the guy from Deep Blue Sea who uses the Fantasy Labs NFL tools.
Let’s dive into some of the most appealing players to target and team to fade on StatHero in Week 13.
Remarkable price differences
One of the ways to find leverage on StatHero is to find remarkable error rates compared to player forecasts in our player models. However, you do not always need these players because it will depend on which lineups you target. You may still be able to use a player who is not on this list but who is expected to get more raw points based on your strategy for building your roster vs. the opposite lineup.
Derek Carr – QB13 on StatHero, QB8 on FantasyLabs
The football team is number five in the pass rush, while the Raiders are 21st in the pass blocking, so I understand that. That said, Washington is 28th in pass coverage and 30th in pass-defense DVOA. Raiders are suggested for healthy 25.5 points per game. Vegas Dashboard, and this game is one of three with a total of at least 50 points. Translation: Points should be scored in this one and they should come via the passing game, especially since Washington is seventh in rush-defense DVOA while the Raiders are 31st in race blocking.
This season, Carr has attempted 35 passes in eight games with three of them over 40 and has produced over 20 DraftKings points six times.
Matt Ryan – QB24 on StatHero, QB16 on FantasyLabs
I think Ryan is cheering and leaning towards the StatHero ranking here. That said, the Bucs are in sixth place in rush-defense DVOA, so the road to least resistance goes through the air. In addition, the Bucs are implied for 30.5 points, so Ryan will have to sling it around to keep up. Over 40 passing attempts are well within the reach of results. What Ryan does with them is another question, but it’s about opportunities.
Antonio Gibson – RB10 on StatHero, RB5 on FantasyLabs
Over the last three games, Gibson has carried the ball 24, 19 and 29 times. He has gone 111, 95 and 64 yards with two touchdowns over that span. He also comes from a match where he received seven goals, which is a season-high. In the red zone, he has scored six, six and eight goals. JD McKissic has been ruled out due to a concussion, so he should really carry the load this weekend.
Elijah Mitchell – RB19 on StatHero, RB7 on FantasyLabs
During the season, Mitchell has on average had a positive 8.16 Plus / Minus and exceeded the point expectations 70% of the time. He has carried 27 times in each of the last two games and has won 133 and 91 yards. He has 11 red zone transactions on the season.
DeVonta Smith – WR16 on StatHero, WR29 on FantasyLabs
Smith has only conceded at least nine goals twice this season. Over the last five games, the goal numbers have been four, six, six, six and three. The Jets are number 30 in rush-defense DVOA, so a ground-and-pound approach is likely in the cards for Philly. In the first seven weeks of the season, the Eagles rushed 39% of the time. Since week 8, that number has increased to 64%!
Logan Thomas – TE8 at StatHero, TE16 at FantasyLabs
I also join the StatHero ranking here. Thomas missed six games but returned last week. He caught just three of six goals on 31 yards, but he played in 79% of the snaps, and the Raiders have been the second most generous in terms of fantasy points for tight ends this season.
Foster Moreau – TE18 at StatHero, TE9 at FantasyLabs
Darren Waller is out so Moreau will be THE guy on the tight end for the Raiders. The last time Waller missed a game, Moreau caught all six goals in 60 yards and a touchdown. He played in 100% of the snaps that game.
There are a few strategies we can use in these games. To begin with, you are allowed to duplicate a certain number of your opponent’s choices. The number of players you can duplicate depends on the size of the row. I would recommend using as many of the duplicate players as possible. Then we can select the players in our opponent’s lineup who are still suboptimal.
I like the smaller competitions for this reason. In 2 vs. 2 and 3 vs. 3 competitions, there are fewer variables in games with fewer players, making it easier for us to compete with them.
The scoring settings are another potential source of value for us. StatHero uses tight than premium scoring, so they get 1.5 points per. reception while all other players get 1.0. They also use distance scoring, which gives bonus points for longer touchdowns.
Charged Up (Justin Herbert, Elijah Mitchell, Keenan Allen, Noah Fant)
I would choose Mitchell for the block as there is no other setback in his price range that can be compared. Then Foster Moreau is the easy choice in tight end as it is the biggest discrepancy on the board. Moreau projects two points better than Fant with a $ 1,200 discount. The price savings allow us to go with the Bucs stack by Tom Brady and Chris Godwin to fight the Herbert / Allen stack. Brady expects almost two points better than Herbert, while Allen has a slight advantage over Godwin.
Mattison Blues (Alexander Mattison, Justin Herbert, George Kittle)
This is one of the few times I feel okay not to use a block as I want to take advantage of Foster Moreau. Sure, the projection is four points lower than Kittles’, but he’s $ 4,500 cheaper, and I could see both players achieve a similar score. The cost savings allow us to deploy Jonathan Taylor in the MVP. Taylor has the highest projection on the board and is in a fantastic match against a Texans team that is number 25 in the rush-defense DVOA. Finally, Tom Brady is deployed to go against Herbert and he has a two-point better projection.